导读:

本期为大家推介的内容为文章《Global projections of future wilderness decline under multiple IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios 》<基于IPCC SRES（政府间气候变化专门委员会多种排放情景特别报告）对未来全球荒野减少情景的预测>，发表在《Resources, Conservation & Recycling》，欢迎大家学习与交流。

在全球范围内，荒野地区正在以超过其保护的速度消失，这对全球环境产生了不利影响。人类迫切需要了解全球荒野变化的趋势和后果而采取行动。我们在IPCC SRES土地利用情景的框架内预测2100年全球荒野减少情况。这些预测显示，荒野的减少深受不同的全球社会经济发展路径的影响。情景A2（技术创新缓慢，生物燃料需求传统）的荒野总损失（4.74%）远高于其他情景。全球约76.51%的荒野消失发生在南美洲，这将发生在热带和亚热带潮湿阔叶林中。情景B1（环境意识水平较高）的荒野损失最小（0.08%）。我们发现2100年的荒野损失将集中在一些重要的生物群落中，这些生物群落具有相对高密度的碳储存。这些发现强调了有针对性的荒野保护对确保生态系统的长期完整和碳循环的平衡具有重要的作用。

题目：《Global projections of future wilderness decline under multiple IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios 》

《基于IPCC SRES（政府间气候变化专门委员会多种排放情景特别报告）对未来全球荒野减少情景的预测》

作者：Fangzheng Li, Wenyue Li, Fengyi Li, Ying Long, Shiyi Guo, Xiong Li, Chensong Lin, Jing Li

发表刊物：《Resources, Conservation & Recycling》

摘要ABSTRACT

Globally, wilderness areas are being lost at a rate that outpaces their protection, which has adverse effects on the global environment. Rapid action is needed to understand the trends and consequences of global wilderness change. We present projections of global wilderness decline in 2100 under the influence of land-use change within the framework of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (IPCC SRES). The projections revealed that the decline of wilderness was deeply affected by different global socioeconomic development pathways. The total wilderness loss (4.74%) in scenario A2 (with slow technological innovation and traditional demand for biofuels) was much higher than in the other scenarios. Around 76.51% of the loss of global wilderness globally occurs occurred in South America, which will occur in Tropical and Subtropical Moist Broadleaf Forests. The smallest loss (0.08%) occurred in scenario B1 (with a high level of environmental consciousness). We found that wilderness losses in 2100 will be concentrated in some important biomes, which have relatively high-density carbon storage. These findings stress the importance of targeted wilderness protection to ensure the long-term integrity of ecosystems and the balance of the carbon cycle. 

文章链接：

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0921344921005929

文章DOI：

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.resconrec.2021.105983